How the expected cost of getting funded is calculated
Each attempt either passes or it does not. If your chance of passing stays about the same from one attempt to the next, the number of attempts you need follows a simple pattern: on average, it is one divided by your pass rate. At 20% per attempt that is five attempts; at 10%, ten.
The expected spend is the price of your first attempt plus the price of a retry for every extra attempt you can expect to need:
expected spend = first attempt + retry price × (1 - pass rate) ÷ pass rate
Hypothetical example, for illustration only. A $500 challenge bought with 10% off costs $450, and a reset after a fail costs $400. With two phases passed 30% and 60% of the time, a full pass happens 18% of the time: 5.6 attempts on average, for an expected spend of $2,272. Half of the time the spend stays at or below $1,650 (4 attempts); 9 times in 10, at or below $4,850 (12 attempts). These are the numbers the calculator above opens with.
Why two phases cost more than they look
Phase odds multiply. Passing phase 1 30% of the time and phase 2 60% of the time sounds reasonable, but a full pass needs both: 0.30 × 0.60 = 18%. A fail in either phase usually means paying again from the start, so the second phase cuts your chance of getting funded on each attempt by 40%.
Retries, resets and discounts
When your pass rate is low, most of the expected spend is retries, not the first purchase: in the example above, retries are 80% of the $2,272. That makes the retry price the number that matters. A reset that costs less than a new discounted challenge, or a discount that also applies to repurchases, moves the total more than a bigger discount on the first purchase alone.
The pass rate moves it most of all. With the same prices, the expected spend is $4,050 at 10% per attempt, $2,272 at 18% and $1,383 at 30%. Improving your odds does more for the total than any discount.
Set a budget before the first attempt
The average hides how wide the outcomes are. A budget in attempts, decided in advance, turns the question into one you can plan around: with three attempts at 18%, the chance of being funded before you stop is about 45%, and the chance of spending all three without getting funded is about 55%. The calculator shows both for your own numbers. If daily loss breaches are what end most of your attempts, the daily loss calculator shows where your account breaches today under your firm's rule.
What this calculator leaves out
It assumes your odds stay the same from one attempt to the next, which is rarely exact: experience can raise them, and trading to win back the last fee can lower them. It ignores fees refunded with a first payout, free retries and promotions that change from month to month, and it counts only what you spend until you are funded, not the time it takes. Treat the result as a hypothetical order of magnitude built on your own estimate, not a prediction. What to do after a failed attempt is covered in Failed My Prop Firm Challenge: What Now?